Could a Phillies World Series win really trigger an economic downturn? History says yes, but logic says no (via CNBCMakeIt)
This is an excerpt from the CNBC Make It newsletter.By day, I'm a mild-mannered financial journalist and intermittent newsletter writer. By night, I'm a rabid Philadelphia sports fan.
But here's where the finance writer thing comes in handy. For one thing, the Global Financial Crisis and associated bear market began in 2007, not 2008. But even if the assertion is that Philly World Series and financial downturns go hand-in-hand, it's worth remembering that a million of these sorts of silly indicators and truisms have floated around among market watchers for decades — and they rarely mean anything.
This may look prescient this year given how things have gone after a down January. But 2020 and 2021 — both huge years in the stock market — started with negative January returns. Overall,that the rule tends to work better in up Januarys than down ones, which makes sense. The U.S. stock market, after all, has historically tended to go up.
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