Rishi Sunak leads the race to be PM after two rounds of voting, but history shows that the early frontrunner doesn't always win.
Loyal defenders of Boris Johnson argued repeatedly that he should not be deposed as Conservative leader because there was no obvious candidate to replace him.
Douglas-Home, Major, and May got the keys to Number 10 automatically, without the general public having a say, since the Conservatives were in power. Thatcher and Cameron had to win a general election first. Still, in 1963 when Harold Macmillan stood down, the eventual winner, Lord Home of the Hersel, was not a declared candidate or even properly available since he was a member of the Lords.
When Conservative MPs felt Thatcher had outlived her usefulness more than a decade later, leadership challenges in successive years provided the mechanism to push her out. The Conservatives set about refreshing themselves in opposition. The veteran cabinet minister Ken Clarke had the most votes in the first two rounds of voting by Conservative MPs. But the relatively inexperienced rising star William Hague eventually won through as other candidates were eliminated.
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