A big slice of U.S. bank liabilities are commercial mortgages and loans to the real-estate industry, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
U.S. banks held an estimated $3.1 trillion of commercial mortgages to start the year, leaving the real-estate industry particularly vulnerable to a pullback in lending, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
The new report offers a glimpse into how important commercial mortgages and bank loans have been over the last 20 years, for banks and the U.S. economy , with the two segments accounting for about 24% of U.S. gross domestic product. A fear since early March has been of potential further instability at banks, particularly if a run on deposits were to force banks to sell low-coupon debt or loan holdings at a discount, realizing the loss. The Fed created a new facility in March for banks to tap, with the goal of averting forced asset sales.While the 2-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD02Y was around 2.3% a year ago, it was closer to 4.1% on Wednesday, showing why older securities would be worth less given today’s yields.
“These large shares—coupled with the large share of capex by the manufacturing and real-estate sectors—imply that the coming tightening in bank credit availability will affect the economy in part through its impact on these two industries,” wrote a team of Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius.
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