Two recent market milestones — Exxon Mobil dropping out of the S&P 500's top 10 stocks for the first time in 90 years and the energy sector weighting in the S&P 500 hitting a multidecade low — pose a provocative question: Are we beginning to see signs of the end of Big Oil as an investment stalwart?
There's a simple reason why: they still make a lot more money from fossil-fuel extraction, including in the U.S. shale plays.
The $2 to $3 billion Shell plans to spend on renewable investments per year compares to $125 billion in dividends and share buybacks Shell plans to deliver to investors between 2021 and 2025. "Investors were burned," Colas said. "100% of complaints go back to 2011 and 2012. They lost all credibility. The lack of faith is not quite as bad as WeWork or Uber, but it will take oil going back to $85 and the drillers not going crazy for belief to come back. Any cyclical company that went through a near-death experience has to show the market they are more disciplined."
It may take a significant rise in oil prices to dispel the belief of energy experts who are inclined to judge the current period as being one more cyclical trough.
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