Dire projections form part of a 'best-case scenario.'
Climate change will compound the pressures of"extensive" deforestation and overharvesting on Madagascar—including the ruffed lemur, the scientists wrote. The loss of forest as well as climate change could wipe out the lemur's habitat by 38 to 93 percent by 2070, the team found. Alone, deforestation could reduce their habitat by 29 to 59 percent, and climate change by 14 to 75 percent.
But if deforestation only occurred outside of protected areas, then 65 percent of the forest would be gone by 2050, and 51 percent by 2070. If strict protection was followed, the interior forest would increase to 83 percent of total cover by 2050, dropping to 75 percent by 2070. "We read all the time about how species may not exist by the time our kids are old enough to experience them for themselves. But it always feels so distant. So alarmist. So to be involved in generating projections like this firsthand, it somehow makes it more real."
As with any study, the work had its limitations, including that models didn't consider the interactions between forest loss and climate change, said Baden."That is, we assume that the incentives driving deforestation do not respond to climate change. Realistically, this is probably not the case. If climate change alters local people's ability to produce and secure food, they may be forced to further encroach on protected areas for their survival.
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