An ecological analysis of 326 cities across LatinAmerica found that changes in ambient temperature, particularly small increases in extreme heat substantially contributes to all-cause mortality risk jlashk dronova_iryna adiezroux WaleskaCaiaffa
. A 2021 analysis by Zhao et al. estimated temperature–mortality associations in 750 locations from 43 countries , and extrapolated these estimates globally at 0.5° × 0.5° grid size is almost twice our estimated EDF for cold within Latin American cities . Although our study sample included some colder cities, this difference in mortality burden from cold temperatures may reflect the relatively temperate or warm climates within our study setting compared with the Zhao et al.
Drawing conclusions about the relative impact of heat and cold on mortality risk using EDFs is rendered complex by the fact that the EDF estimate is driven by both the impact of temperature changes on mortality and the distribution of hot and cold days.
We also observed that the increase in mortality associated with a 1 °C increase in extremely hot temperatures has substantial geographic variation. For example, increases in mortality risk per 1 °C increase in extreme heat are particularly steep in the cities of coastal Mexico, northern Argentina and southern Brazil.
. A greater understanding of the city-level factors that explain heterogeneity in temperature-related mortality may help identify effective actions to buffer future impacts of climatic changes. Our results support the prevailing understanding that individuals aged ≥65 years have increased vulnerability to heat-related mortality
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