For China, the speed with which the U.S. and its allies sanctioned Russia is a warning sign that could guide economic and foreign policy.
Because Western trade with China is far greater than it is with Russia, a full trade war with China"would be quite costly [for the West] and in nobody's interest," said Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp, a fellow at the German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
"If all Russian institutions are banned from joining the SWIFT network, then I think the level of political pressure is very different from what it is now," said Zhu Ning, professor of finance and deputy dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. Rhodium Group's Goujon pointed out that the U.S. presidential election in 2024 poses a risk to how long the unity lasts among U.S. allies.
Regardless, the Biden administration is trying hard to unify the world's democracies — and since the Ukraine war started, more of them seem to be listening.
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