Sluggish consumer spending has dragged down China’s economy since the pandemic, with little relief in sight for the year ahead.
Property poses"the biggest growth headwind in 2022," Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu said in his outlook report. He expects housing starts and floor space sold to fall at an even faster pace next year, and property investment to drop by 2%, after rising by an expected 4.8% this year.
China's top-level economic planning meeting this month did not signal much change in policy on real estate. Beijing maintained its position that"houses are for living in, not for speculation." Regional and local governments derive at least 20%, if not more, of their revenue from land sales to developers, according to Moody's.
"Weak market sentiment is also affecting residential home sales, as buyers postpone purchases in anticipation of further price reduction,"The firm expects a 15% decline in home sales by value next year, which could cause five of 40 developers in its rating coverage to suffer a cash squeeze.
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