If you've got a 20-year time horizon, this chart suggests your odds are pretty good
But in a less-morbid twist on that “Fight Club” quote, it’s safe to say that, on a long enough timeline, the win rate in the stock market reaches 100%.
As proof, he pointed to this animation from The Measure of a Plan blog, which shows the performance of the U.S. market over different rolling time horizons using annualized returns going all the way back to 1872. As you can clearly see, the longer the time frame, the less frequency that your market bet will become a loser. In fact, once the 20-year window is reached, all losses disappear completely. Yes, of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but still, you have to like your chances.
“Long-term investors can see that as long as their time horizon is measured in the decades, you can take the odds of making money in the stock market to the bank,” Desjardins wrote.
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