Our betting analysts answer some of the most pressing questions surrounding Monday night's game between the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers.
I prefer the total to the spread here. Yes, Jets games tend to be low-scoring, but the Chargers have had a total over 40.5 in six of their seven games this season. Part of the issue there is that the Los Angeles defense has simply not been good this year, ranked 27th in DVOA right now. The Jets will be able to move the ball a little bit, and so will the Chargers, and so I'm going with over 40.5.
I am backing the Jets to cover the spread for this game. New York is playing at home, and the Chargers are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast. This season, the Jets' defense has been strong, ranking ninth in run stop win rate and allowing the fifth fewest opponent passing yards per game. New York will be ready to compete on the national stage. This is going to be a close game, in my opinion.
The Jets have quietly won three in a row and haven't lost since Oct. 1, and even that was a three-point loss to the Chiefs. Are you buying New York as a team that has turned it around?this year? Nope. But better than they were in September? Yes. The Jets ranked 31st in offensive DVOA in September compared with 24th in October. Their defensive DVOA has gone from 16th in September to fourth in October.
He ranked 30th in QBR in 2021, would have ranked 28th if he qualified in 2022 and ranks 28th in 2023. The defense is legitimately excellent, but the Jets are fortunate to be 4-3 with Wilson and I expect he will hold the team back in the second half of the season.He's ready for a huge workload coming out of the bye week for a Jets team that doesn't appear to wantinvolved. Hall had 18 touches last week against the Giants.
Although he's a safety, Whitehead still records a similar tackle share on run and pass plays and a higher tackle rate on run plays. That means if the Chargers get ahead and start running the ball more than usual, that actually would work in Whitehead's favor in terms of the over. My model projects Whitehead for 6.3 tackles + assists.
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