Ahead of likely recessions in the UK and the Eurozone, the BoE and ECB are poised to raise rates to ward off inflation pressures. The BOE’s inflation fighting task has been complicated, however, by the apparent need for intervention in UK Gilt markets.
In this edition of Central Bank Watch, we’ll cover the two major central banks in Europe: the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The economic situation is deteriorating in both the UK and the Eurozone, thanks in part to the unfolding energy crisis.
UK stagflation remain elevated, although the recent UK mini-budget might provide enough fiscal support to the UK economy to prevent a significant downturn in growth. Nevertheless, with an energy crisis building, the coming months may prove very difficult for the UK economy. As the BOE works to curb multi-decade highs in inflation pressures, its fight has been complicated by the fact that markets see the recent UK mini-budget as imperiling the country’s fiscal position, sending UK Gilt yields soaring. In turn, the BOE announced expanded bond buying efforts through the end of this week to prevent further dysfunction in UK bond markets.
The BOE’s main rate is expected to peak at 5.770% by June 2023, a sharp increase from two months ago when the main rate was discounted at 4.267% by June 2023.
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