New census data shows declining populations in rural areas and some Rust Belt cities, which could make them targets during redistricting for the U.S. House.
FILE - In this July 29, 2021 file photo, Rep. Mary Miller, R-Ill., speaks at a news conference held by members of the House Freedom Caucus on Capitol Hill in Washington. The release of new, detailed census data in August 2021 means Democrats who control state government can begin the once-in-a-decade process of redrawing Illinois' congressional district boundaries.
The numbers come from an Associated Press analysis of new 2020 census data revealing the boom of urban and suburban America, at the expense of small towns. The emptying out of rural areas was particularly rough news for Republicans, who have increasingly relied on rural voters to win seats in Congress. Of the 61 U.S. House districts that lost population, 35 are held by Republicans.
The political parties will be battling not just over where they can gain seats but also where they can eliminate seats held by their opponents. That means some of the toughest battles for mapmakers will occur over districts that have fewer residents than a decade ago, like those in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio — all states that will be losing a U.S. House seat because of lagging population.
Republicans, who control redistricting in Ohio, could “sort of dismember” Ryan's district and place its residents in other nearby districts, said Paul Beck, a retired political science professor from Ohio State University. “I think that district is going to be on the cutting boards.”A lost Democratic district in Ohio wouldn't necessarily result in a Republican gain, because the GOP still would have to defend 12 seats that it already holds.
A similar scenario could play out in New York, where Democrats also control redistricting and thus will hold sway over which seat must be eliminated.
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