As the Bank of Canada considers ditching oversized interest rate hikes, it is dealing with an economy likely more overheated than previously thought but also the bond market's clearest signal yet that recession and lower inflation lie ahead.
for November showed that the labour market remains tight, while gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter.
But they also say that the details of the third-quarter GDP data, including a contraction in domestic demand, and a preliminary report showing no growth in October are signs that higher borrowing costs have begun to impact activity. The depth of Canada's curve inversion is signaling a "bad recession" not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research.
Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices to services and wages, where higher costs can become more entrenched. Still,that are closely watched by the BoC - CPI-median and CPI-trim - show price pressures easing.
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