In 2016, Trump lost the national vote by 2.868 million votes -- and received a 4.27 million vote drubbing in California. Even if Trump were to experience a Lazarus-like California renaissance next year, where does he find the additional votes needed to win a national popularity contest?
Four years later, Bush not only was re-elected but managed to win the popular vote by 3 million votes .Obviously, Bush did a stellar job of finding support – improving on his 2000 numbers by nearly 11.6 million votes – despite John Kerry outperforming Al Gore by eight million votes., he shares his father’s fate as a one-term president.
To turn a 500,000-vote deficit into a three-million-vote advantage nationally, Bush had to do the following: makes bigger gains in bigger states ; and tread water in California .Trump didn’t merely lose the Golden State in 2016 – he was . Take away Trump’s 4.27 million-vote deficit in California and he wins the national tally with roughly 1.4 million votes to spare.In 2016, Hillary Clinton received two million more votes in California than did John Kerry 12 years earlier.
Trump would have to close the gaps in New York , Illinois and Massachusetts . Trump could also look at Florida and Ohio as areas of improvement.Again, looks are deceiving. Trump cruised to victory in Texas in 2016, finishing 807,000 votes ahead of Mrs. Clinton. However, Trump received just 52.2% of the statewide vote. That made him the first Republican presidential candidate in the last 20 years Another way to look at this: 1.
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