If the gas keeps flowing, so will the debate about the morality of buying it
, the association of German industry. In early March, Siegfried Russwurm, theembargo on Russian energy is “playing with fire” and would harm the, a German chemicals giant, said that if its gas supply is halved it will need to halt production at the world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen, which employs around 40,000 people. Hundreds of thousands of related jobs would be in danger.
These pessimistic assessments are contradicted by the German Institute for Economic Research ; a working paper co-written by a group of German and international economists and published bytribute, an economics research group involving the universities of Bonn and Cologne. These suggest that Germanwould take a hit of up to 3% if imports of Russian energy were to cease immediately. That is substantially less than the 4.
The central question is how German industry would cope. Everyone agrees that finding quick substitutes for gas in industrial processes is a daunting task. Yet Benjamin Moll, one of the other authors of the paper, notes that during the second world war the American economy showed an astonishing ability to adapt to similar shortages.
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