At first glance, bans on imports seem to have scrambled pre-war trade routes, with China and India replacing the EU and G7 as the main recipients of Russia’s seaborne oil. But a recent report suggests that the real change is not so drastic
imposing sanctions on Russia’s oil industry have had to thread a needle. Every barrel the country sells helps finance its war in Ukraine. But a sharp cut in Russian exports would send prices surging, raising the value of Russia’s remaining output.7 group of big economies in September announced a price cap. This lets insurers and shippers under their laws deal in Russian oil only if it is priced below a given level.
The report designates China, India, Singapore, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as “laundromats” for Russian oil. Together, during the war’s first year their imports of Russian crude climbed by 140% from the previous year. Their exports of refined oil products to price-cap countries also rose by 26% , compared with just 2% to other destinations.
This does not mean that the cap is failing. As long as it cuts Russian profits, it is doing its job. And the new rules do impose costs on Russia. Shipping oil to China and then to Europe burns a lot of it in the process. Refiners have to adjust to new grades of crude. And dodging the price cap requires new, possibly unfavourable deals with non-Western tankers and insurers.
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