For today's budget to help the Conservatives ahead of the next election, the chancellor will need the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of worsening living standards to be wrong
Ed Conway gives his first take on the impact of the spring budget: 'These numbers are finally starting to get better'.Real living standards are expected to fall 5.7% between now and 2024 - the period until the next election.While this is 1.4 percentage points less than the November forecast, this is still the largest two-year fall since records began in the 1950s.The OBR also says the investment allowances announced by Mr Hunt do not boost growth, they just bring the benefits earlier.
The other striking reform in this budget is to get more people into work, with changes that will affect parents, people with disabilities and introducing more rigorous sanctions for benefit claimants who do not take up reasonable work offers or increase their hours. The scale of the problem is stark: in the budget speech, Mr Hunt said this was because while there are one million vacancies, there are seven million people not working.
The OBR forecast these measures will only increase the labour market by 110,000 by 2027 - dealing with a fraction of the problem.
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