3 key trends driving global economic turbulence
The 19th Annual Forbes Global CEO conference, held Oct. 15 and 16 in Singapore, featured some big headliners: Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Alibaba founder Jack Ma, and Forbes chairman Steve Forbes among them. The theme “Transcending the Turbulence” acknowledged a global economy beset by storms, bumps and risk aversion. Trade wars and escalating U.S.-China tensions are to blame. But they aren’t the only storms.
In China, the median age reached 35 in 2010 and the annual growth rate has since slowed by a third. Growth will slow further, because its population is rapidlyaging. By 2030 the median age in China will be 43 and by 2040, 47. China’s aging population will come with other large costs. American investor Michael Milken predicts a more amply fed China will have 150 million people with diabetes by 2050.
Countries with median ages between 25 and 35 have the best chance for robust growth, assuming they have functional education systems and rule of law to encourage investment and social mobility. With median ages of 27, India, Indonesia and Vietnam should have brighter futures.Roughly 55% of today’s global population, roughly 4 billion people, live in urban areas, defined as a city with suburbs above 500,000 inhabitants. By 2050, the urban population will reach 6 billion.
Other trends contribute to global turbulence—geopolitics around China’s superpower ambitions; the globalist vs. nationalist divide seen in Brexit and Trump’s trade war; climate change; a global refugee crisis; and Russian meddling. But none are as predictable as the three megatrends above. Amid the turbulence, I like India, Southeast Asia and the U.S. While the U.S. median age will cross 40 in the near future , two key groups—the millennials and GenZs who account for 44% of the American population—are coming into their prime productive years. That’s a bullish sign.As an author and global futurist, he has published several books, the latest of which is, a groundbreaking exploration of what it means to be a late bloomer in a culture obsessed with SAT scores and early success.
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