A proliferation of food banks and a rise in rough sleeping have convinced many that cuts to welfare went too far
. Concern over the extent of poverty, however, is rising, according to the latest edition of the British Social Attitudes Survey, published on July 11th. Voters no longer complain about “scroungers” during focus groups, say pollsters.programmes are more likely to focus on the botched roll-out of universal credit, a big welfare reform, than they are on the undeserving poor.
But a strong labour market does not always translate into support for welfare. The British economy boomed in 1997-2007, when Tony Blair’s Labour government was in charge, yet scepticism about welfare rose during Mr Blair’s second and third terms. What other factors are at play? The highly visible effects of these policies, from a proliferation of food banks to a rise in rough sleeping, have convinced many people that Mr Osborne went too far. As on many subjects, public opinion on welfare tends to be “thermostatic”, says Ben Baumberg Geiger of the University of Kent. Once policies become harsher or softer than the level preferred by the public, voters send a signal and the government adjusts the policy “temperature” accordingly.
The change in mood is matched in the political debate. Not long ago, opposition parties boasted that they would be tougher on welfare than the incumbent. As recently as 2015 Labour—then under the caretaker leadership of Harriet Harman, a veteran of Mr Blair’s administrations—whipped itss to abstain on a vote on Mr Osborne’s benefit cuts, rather than vote against them. Ed Miliband, who preceded her as leader, promised to crack down on migrants receiving benefits.
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