Forget the Magic Money Tree. Another mythical being rules British politics
, the biggest chunk of state spending, is glaringly inefficient and that pumping cash into long-term health rather than emergency care would be a fine thing. There is a problem, however. Making fat people thin will help in the long term but it will not reducedemand next year. Plugging the £10bn backlog of capital investment has to come from elsewhere in the health budget without extra funding.
People believe funny things when they are desperate. Whoever wins the next election will govern against a miserable economic backdrop. The last time Labour entered office from opposition, the economy was flying. Average growth was about 3%. National debt was 37% of. It was in this context that Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown tried, with mixed success, to overhaul Britain’s public services. This time the Conservatives are passing on a rotten inheritance.
One area of reform where at least Labour has been fiscally realistic is on the green transition. Labour has pledged to spend £28bn a year on capital investment to fund everything from home insulation to tree-planting. Making the national grid carbon-free by 2030 will not come cheap. The £28bn is, however, an area where discipline in the party breaks down. For some it is an untouchable pledge; for others, it is to be cast aside if things look a bit tight.
If Labour is to have more success, it must learn from a Conservative government that did manage to overhaul Britain. Margaret Thatcher is associated with a supply-side revolution that shook the state and broke Britain’s unions. But it took both strategy and spending. Before Thatcher smashed the miners, she had to pay the police. As one of her first acts in office she handed the police a pay rise of 45%, on the ground that broke cops would not break strikes.
Believing in the Reform Fairy has served Labour well so far. A cautious approach on fiscal matters means that Labour is now more trusted on the economy than the Conservatives. Promising reform, rather than spending, is a way of appearing sensible. Yet promising reform without admitting that it will cost money and cause political pain is fundamentally unserious. The Magic Money Tree may not exist. Nor does the Reform Fairy.
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