British finance minister Jeremy Hunt looks set to keep his grip on the public finances in next week's budget, refraining from big tax cuts or spending increases until the next election comes closer into view
Their pledge to have Britain's 2.5 trillion-pound debt mountain falling as a share of the economy in five years' time will constrain Hunt in his March 15 budget statement.About two thirds of the 30 billion pounds of wiggle room in his existing plans comes from one-off factors, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank.
However, Hunt's restraint now is also seen as a political choice: the Conservative Party will need all the help it can get next year to overcome the opposition Labour Party's big opinion poll lead before a national election expected in 2024. Analysts at BNP Paribas also said keeping room for tax cuts ahead of the next election would be a priority for Hunt, meaning he would probably use only half of the 30 billion-pound windfall in the public finances in next week's plan.Hunt's future room for manoeuvre could be further constrained if Britain's fiscal watchdog turns gloomier about the economic outlook in its forecasts that underpin the budget.
The OBR said in its last forecasts in November that gross domestic product would slump by 1.4% this year, but expand by 1.3% and 2.6% in 2024 and 2025.
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