Selling more gas to China is one of Vladimir Putin’s oldest pet projects. And it would be a sensible thing to do for Russia, in order to diversify its export markets. Unfortunately for the Russian president, the idea has become both more urgent and less feasible after the war he launched on Ukraine.
European Union governments can ignore the Russian leader’s repeated threats that Moscow will sell to Beijing what Europeans no longer buy. A pivot of Russia’s gas trade towards China may well. But for the next few years, Moscow won’t have the pipelines, the ships, or even the gas to make Putin’s dream come true.
One pipeline, still in its ramp-up stage, is currently bringing gas to China at an annual pace of some 10 billion cubic metres , with the potential of delivering 38 bcm at full capacity in a few years. That compares with the 155 bcm that the EU bought in 2021, and 210 bcm of overall Russian pipeline. A deal was struck with Beijing for another one in February, and a long-time project to bring gas from the Yamal peninsula may even be agreed someday.
Even if Russia were able to build those ships, they would not be able to transport much extra gas. Gas from the new fields cannot be liquefied without Western technologies, and big Western oil companies such as Shell
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