From Breakingviews: Italy’s summer ‘coup’ occupies a fragile throne, says rob1cox
PARIS - Last weekend at the elegant Villa d’Este hotel with its commanding view of Lake Como, an elite squad of Italian business leaders, investors and policymakers, including three former prime ministers, were asked for their view on the state of the country’s affairs. Though not ebullient, they were more optimistic than at the same time a year ago. Given what’s transpired in the world’s eighth-largest economy in the past 12 months, that’s perhaps not surprising.
Investors have been even more enthusiastic in their appraisal since early August, when the anti-immigrant and EU-sceptic League party pulled its support for the coalition it put together a little more than a year before. Though the League boss Matteo Salvini’s decision to call for elections appeared designed to provoke a crisis, the move backfired.
Moreover, while Salvini may appear a damaged figure, support for his party is still strong. Though it only has around 17% of the seats in parliament today, various polls suggest it would snag between 30% and 35% of the vote in a general election. That’s in line with the group’s showing in May’s ballot for the European Parliament.
But there are other measures that could make a difference. In recent years, Italy has lagged in making critical investments that could help growth and increase productivity, argues Carlo Cottarelli, a former director at the International Monetary Fund who was nearly named prime minister before last year’s coalition government was formed. In a paper presented to the conference, Cottarelli calculated that Italy’s gross domestic product would have grown by 0.
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