With Iran, Donald Trump faces an unnecessary crisis of his own making. It will be hard for him to come out ahead
Iran hopes that if it does, or threatens to do, things others would rather it did not, it might have its plight relieved. So in May it quadrupled the rate at which it was producingstocks at Natanz had not quite surpassed 300kg. But in just a few days the limit could be broken.
Fissile brinkmanship is the most candid signal of Iran’s willingness to make its pain a concern to others, but there are more. On May 12th and June 13th several tankers were attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and in the Gulf of Oman. America and some allies blamed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps . Rebels in Yemen, who have been armed by Iran in the past, have recently carried out several missile and drone attacks against targets in America’s ally, Saudi Arabia.
Hence another interpretation of maximum pressure on Iran: that it is aimed at pushing the country into negotiations. “I think they want to negotiate,” Mr Trump said on June 23rd. “And I think they want to make a deal. And my deal is nuclear.”Mr Pompeo’s wide-ranging demands, Mr Trump stressed there were no preconditions for talks. The plan, to the extent that such a thing exists, would seem to follow the template he used with North Korea.
In return, Iran would need America to rejoin the deal, provide greater sanctions relief than it did in 2015 and decline to press Iran on some or all of the wider goals Mr Pompeo set out. America might also offer the surety of a deal which, unlike the original, would be enshrined in a treaty ratified by the Senate from which no president could withdraw off his own bat. Democratic senators want the deal restored, and the Republicans who opposed it under Mr Obama might now come round.
America could respond in kind. It has devoted considerable resources to planting malware throughout Iran’s nuclear sites, military and communication networks and power grid as part of a project called Nitro Zeus. After the air strikes of June 20th were called off, cyber-attacks on theand missile forces went ahead. America also disrupted the communications of Kata’ib Hizbullah, an Iran-backed militia group in Iraq, in the days afterwards.
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