A football World Cup prediction model that anyone can try has given Brazil the highest chance of winning the 2022 men’s competition – but the odds don’t look promising for most nations taking part
Watch DeepMind's digital humanoids learn to play soccer
“It’s quite important to us for most of the things we do that we make them open source,” says Barlow. “We encourage people to get involved, to use our code and to contribute to it.” When Barlow and his team ran the tournament through 100,000 times using their model, they found that Brazil won 25 per cent of the time, with their next-closest rivals being Belgium on 19 per cent and Argentina on 13 per cent.
The researchers adapted a common method used for matches in domestic leagues that gives teams a score for defence and attack to predict matches, but they tweaked their model to eliminate the home advantage that will be absent for all teams in Qatar apart from the home nation, as well as accounting for differences between the strength of teams that play each other in international friendlies.
They also tuned it to give more weight to the results of certain matches, like semifinals and finals, and more recent games, as well as running the model on past tournaments to see how well its predictions matched up to the real-world results, and tweaking it based on its performance.
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