Brazil's far-right president is following Trump's playbook to undermine 2022 elections. And he's working hard to secure the military support Trump lacked.
instead of voting for a candidate from the Workers’ Party. With da Silva at the helm, the Workers’ Party remains the only real electoral threat to Bolsonaro, and with no centrist choice likely to emerge, much of that same establishment seemsIt’s plausible that Bolsonaro would wage a similarly anti-democratic campaign against Brazil’s institutions even without da Silva in the picture.
Bolsonaro may be weaker now than at any other moment during his presidency. But he has demonstrated a surprisingly durable level of support in a country where the prior two presidents saw approval ratings dip into the low single digits. Bolsonaro’s remains around 25%. It’s a bad sign for his election prospects, but it may still be a powerful enough base to protect him from, and to potentially mobilize in his favor if and when he claims the election was rigged against him.
Other generals Bolsonaro has placed in key positions, not so much. Last month, Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto, a general, reportedly dispatched aides to tell congressional leaders that “” if Congress did not approve the electoral changes Bolsonaro was seeking. Braga Netto issued an unconvincing denial of the report, and similar rumblings have occurred since.
Despite those warning signs, most political analysts believe it’s unlikely that the military’s top brass will go along with a full-throated coup effort if Bolsonaro loses next year. The Brazilian armed forces,, are no longer guided by distinct political ideology. Their main concern is their own self-interest. Intervening on behalf of a largely unpopular president would pose a massive risk to the military’s credibility, which it has worked hard to restore over the last 30 years.
Still, Boghossian said it’s obvious that at least some segments of the military are sympathetic to Bolsonaro’s concerns about the election and the way the Supreme Court has responded to his charges. The fact that it’s uncertain how the military will respond if he continues to challenge Brazil’s democratic institutions ― or if he strikes at the heart of Brazilian democracy itself ― is alone a worrying sign.
The move may help Bolsonaro and his sons stave off some of the ongoing investigations into their family. But it also sent an important signal to police ahead of the election that“This is a group that has been very loyal to him, and he has been very loyal to them,” said Ilona Szabó, co-founder of the Igarapé Institute, a Rio de Janeiro-based public security think tank. “Important parts of the police forces are very radicalized.
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