Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin have discussed 'unspecified bilateral military cooperation.'
on January 16 amid growing fears that Putin could lobby his Belarusian counterpart to join the conflict. Belarus said it would activate all of its air force bases, air force training grounds and air defense forces for the drills, with joint air patrols planned along the Belarusian border.
"The most dangerous course of action of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely," the ISW said. According to the think tank's assessment, it appears more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises , likely in September of this year.
At the same time, senior officials within the Kremlin are continuing to hold high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership, the ISW said, noting that this is"activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus."
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