The midterm elections could go a long way toward determining whether President Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee in 2024.
Even if Democrats want to move on from Biden, who will turn 80 shortly after the elections, the better they do in November, the harder it will be for them to show him the door.
The president has already been strengthened by a series of legislative wins: the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, the toxic burn pits bill, and a modest package of gun reforms. Those numbers aren’t the stuff of landslides — they’re close to where former President Barack Obama was before Democrats suffered their 63-seat “shellacking” in the 2010 midterm House races — and still leave him underwater. But when combined with signs of rising Democratic voter enthusiasm, they could stem the losses in November.
This brings us to 2024: Biden will have a much stronger argument for a second term if Democrats avoid disaster this year. And that argument may only need to be persuasive to Biden himself. He has been running for president since 1987. Most people who entertain White House ambitions for that long end up a Harold Stassen-like asterisk in the history book. Biden is in the Oval Office.
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