Democrats’ prospects for holding onto Congress are fading a week before the U.S. election as voters focus on economic concerns rather than the rollback of...
Since Labor Day, slightly more than one of every five Republican ads mentions inflation, according to AdImpact, which tracks political spending. Democrats touch on the issue in fewer than one of every 20 ads they air.Over the same period, Democrats mentioned the abortion issue in 44% of their ads. Republicans avoided the subject, raising it in just 3% of their ads.
The projection is close to historical norms, with the president’s party on average losing 25.8 House seats in the 19 prior midterm elections since World War II. They are also outspending Republicans in the period after Labor Day, the traditional kickoff of the general election campaign, $1.1 billion to $945 million. And GOP candidates and their surrogates are slated to be outspent in the three weeks before voters go to the polls.Consumer confidence, after improving while gasoline prices were dropping during the summer, turned back down in October.
At the same time, two-thirds of Americans think the country is on the wrong path and only 43% approve of the job Biden is doing as president, according to the RealClear Politics average of polls. Modeling turnout for midterm elections also can be difficult since fewer people usually vote than in presidential elections. Easier access to early voting and a surge of anger among abortion rights supporters over the Supreme Court ruling could alter turnout patterns.
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