The Bank of Korea will hold its base interest rate at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of this year, suggesting its longest tightening cycle on record is over despite still high inflation, a Reuters poll of economists found.
Nearly 90% of economists who provided forecasts through the first quarter of next year, 26 of 29, expected the base rate to fall below 3.50% then, with a majority forecasting 3.00% or above, compared with 3.25% or higher in the previous poll.
"Overall, we remain of the view that the BoK will embark on a prolonged rate pause. We expect the first rate cut to materialise in 2024, when we expect inflation to settle around the 2% mark and the U.S. to pivot." Much will depend on how quickly inflation falls over the coming year. It is down from a peak of 6.3% in July of last year.
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