Saturday's attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure have sidelined daily oil production equivalent to the total added during the U.S. shale oil boom.
This Saturday, Sept. 14, 2019, satellite image provided by NASA Worldview shows fires following Yemen's Houthi rebels claiming a drone attack on two major oil installations in eastern Saudi Arabia. The drones attacked the world's largest oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia and a major oilfield operated by Saudi Aramco early Saturday, sparking a huge fire at a processor crucial to global energy supplies.
The difference is that production in the U.S. and Russia is diversified across numerous producers, and across a much larger geographical area. Saudi Arabia's production is from a single entity -- Saudi Aramco. Further, Saudi Arabia moves and transports a large fraction of the world's production through relatively small geographical areas. That makes it extremely vulnerable to attack.
Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said “This is a big deal. Fearing the worst, I expect that the market will open up $5 to $10 per barrel on Sunday evening. This is 12 to 25 cents per gallon for gasoline.” So, most of the forecasts for a $10/bbl impact on oil prices aren't looking at the implications of an extended outage. I expect Saudi Arabia to make a statement to reassure the markets.
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