Natural variability is probably the cause, although global warming could have a role.
Without land barriers, sea ice in Antarctica can move more freely, under the direction of the wind and ocean swells.Antarctic sea ice shrank to below 2 million square kilometres this year, the lowest minimum extent since satellite records began 43 years ago.
“The record low for total Antarctic sea ice happened in much the same way as the 2017 event,” says Ryan Fogt, a climatologist at Ohio University in Athens. Both events had an earlier than average maximum sea-ice extent, which was followed by rapid declines, he says. From 2017, the sea-ice extent stayed well below average for a few years, returning to near-average conditions again in 2020.
“Antarctic sea ice responds to the whim of the atmosphere and ocean,” says Pat Langhorne, who studies such ice at the University of Otago in New Zealand. This includes wind direction and ocean swells, as well as patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean related to El Niño and La Niña.
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