Ancient El Niños reveals limits to future climate projections utaustin ScienceAdvances
That's the conclusion of a study led by scientists at The University of Texas at Austin that analyzed 9,000 years of Earth's history. The scientists drew on
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climate phenomenon that sets the stage every few years for weather patterns worldwide. Strong El Niño events, such as the ones in 1997 and 2015 that brought wildfires to the rainforests of Borneo in Asia and caused widespread bleaching to the world'sComputer models, however, are unclear about whether El Niño events will become weaker or stronger as the world warms due to climate change.
A 500-year simulation of El Niño intensity from the study period. Although the data appears chaotic, finding how these patterns change during periods of past climate change could hold the key to future climate projections, according to climate researchers at University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. Credit: Allison Lawman
They found that although the occurrence of strong El Niño events intensified over time, the change was small compared with El Niño's highly variable nature.
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