The European Union’s ban on Russian oil products set to come into force on February 5 could lead to a 1 million barrel per day drop in Russian crude oil output for the New Year
"We expect the European ban on seaborne Russian crude and refined products to result in a drop of Russian production of at least 1 million barrels per day in 2023, with Russia having difficulties in finding alternative markets," UBS’ Giovanni Staunovo,While Russia has been rerouting crude volumes to Asia, traders are finding it increasingly challenging to secure the necessary insured vessels to carry sanctioned Russian crude.
Another analyst, Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, told Insider that global supplies will experience more tightness, leading oil prices to top $100 bpd this year, once Chinese demand improves. "Following a soft first quarter, I see the price of Brent returning to a $90-100 dollar range. What happens later will depend on the strength of an incoming economic slowdown," Saxo told Insider. Russia boasts the world’s third-largest refining industry, and the EU ban that goes into effect on February 5 is expected to have a fairly significant impact. , Russian refineries are already struggling with a labor shortage due to conscription for Putin’s war on Ukraine.
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