Analysis: The people of Belarus, Ukraine and the European Union are all worried about having the Wagner Group leader based even closer to them.
Although much about his stay remains unclear, Prigozhin’s arrival Tuesday is a stark reminder that Russia’s chaos is unlikely to stay in Russia and could seep westward, creating instability in Belarus, new challenges for Ukraine and questions for the rest of Europe — just as many warned.“The primary victim of this situation is the Belarusian people,” said Franak Viacorka, the chief adviser to the exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
It is still unclear what, exactly, was agreed between Prigozhin, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Over the weekend, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov outlined a deal under which Prigozhin halted his march on the Russian capital in return for passage to Belarus and the dropping of charges — but many wonder whether there is more to the arrangement.
He also expressed interest in learning from Wagner fighters fresh from combat. “Listen, they are on the front lines,” he said in a meeting, according to the state news agency. “They went through this. They will tell you about weapons — which worked well, which did not. And tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It’s priceless.”And yet, for a nation that lives in the shadows of both Lukashenko and his patron, Putin, the arrival of another strongman seems to have few upsides.
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