A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve.
Benchmark 10-year nominal yields on Tuesday hit near 16-year peaks on concerns about U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sending a hawkish message about keeping rates high at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
“The narrative has very much changed over the last few months,” said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management. "The source of uncertainty is moving away from the and toward the derivative of monetary policy in the economic fallout from policy rates at their highest level since 2001," they said. "The issues of longer-term growth, term premium, and issuance are accounting for an increasing share of the price action.
"A lot of the move that we're seeing now has to do with more long term structural questions, be it around growth or around term premiums," said Anthony Woodside, head of U.S. fixed income strategy at LGIM America.
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