Analysis: Three Kentucky Derby long shots worth a bet to win
Maximum Security By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for The Washington Post Email Bio Follow May 3 at 11:13 AM It hasn’t been easy to make a big score with win bets on the Kentucky Derby. The average return on the last six Derby winners has averaged $8.90 on a $2 wager, a fraction of the average return over the six previous years.
Plus, over the past decade, both times the morning-line favorite scratched from the race — I Want Revenge in 2009 and Uncle Mo in 2011 — bettors were rewarded with nice returns. Mine That Bird hit the wire first at 50-1 in 2009 and Animal Kingdom paid out $43.80 in 2011.
“This is a perfect spot,” trainer George Weaver said after Tuesday’s draw. “We wanted somewhere between post five and 10 and we got a great spot.”Five of the last six Kentucky Derby winners had a front-running style, preferring to stalk the early pace and make their move after the second call . All six of the past winners had a pedigree heavily weighted toward speed, a trend that has been slowly in effect over the past 78 years.
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