Analysis: Here are the top contenders to reach Super Bowl 56, grouped from most to least likely.
There are many litmus tests to separate the Super Bowl contenders from the pretenders, but one of the more reliable methods focuses on teams that perform better than others in specific situations. The easiest way to measure this is through expected points added, which calculates how many points a team scores compared with an average team while running a play under the same circumstances — i.e. the same down, distance and field position.
Neither the offensive nor defensive units for the Tennessee Titans crack the league’s top five in EPA, and their offensive EPA ranks 15th. While they certainly would benefit from the return of star running back Derrick Henry, history suggests the Titans lack the kind of elite production required to reach the Super Bowl. In that way, there are better values found elsewhere.
Buffalo was one of the best defensive teams all season, holding opponents to a league-best 1.5 points per drive and saving 10 points per game after factoring in the down, distance and field position of each play. The offense was also good, scoring 2.6 points per drive and 1.8 points per game more than expected.Dak Prescott was the ninth-most-valuable passer per. With him under center, the Cowboys scored 2.4 points per drive and had one of the highest red-zone rates in the NFL .
Linebacker Micah Parsons is the favorite to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and was one of the highest-graded defensive players per Pro Football Focus. He has been credited with 84 tackles, including 13 sacks, and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in coverage all season over 284 snaps.First in offensive EPA, 22nd in defensive EPA
The offense, led by MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers, has been tough to stop. The Packers scored almost six more points per game than expected in the regular season, and Rodgers’s throws to wide receiver Davante Adams deserve credit for most of that. The duo scored nearly 75 more points than expected over 15 games, a total surpassed only by the Los Angeles Rams’ tandem of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
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