Analysis: The most likely first-round upsets for the men’s NCAA tournament
of participants in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge agreed. When Rutgers won, 60-56, it gave us an early advantage in larger pools. We also identified No. 14 Abilene Christian as having a better-than-average chance to win compared to other No. 14 seeds, and the Wildcats came through with a 53-52 victory over No. 3 Texas. Nearly all of the ESPN brackets, 95 percent, felt differently. In 2019, we nailed No. 10 Iowa over No.
How do we find these diamonds in the rough? We look for teams that have an advantage in one or more of theof basketball as described by Dean Oliver: shooting , rebounding, turnovers and free throw shooting. Better shooters produce more points. Effective rebounders and opportunistic defenders create extra possessions that lead to more points. And teams that can get to the line have access to an efficient way of scoring. We are also on the lookout for favorites who rely heavily on three-pointers.
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