Analysis: A new study by the Cook Political Report shows just how much America’s views have shifted over the last two decades, as regions that were once critical swing districts now occupy the most far right or left on the political landscape.
And the result, politically, is that Kentucky’s 5th and Oklahoma’s 2nd districts gave Donald Trump two of his five biggest margins of victory in 2016 and 2020, greater than 50 percent points in each campaign.Wasserman and the Cook team, in their PVI reports every two years, have documented the decline of legitimate swing districts, those House seats that have a chance of being flipped every two years.
Instead, all the rest of the swing seats sit inside that “+5” range and, because Wasserman’s team released all the data for House districts going back to 1997, this analysis is a great lens into the disappearing middle ground on Capitol Hill. The ideological shift also can be seen on the left end of the spectrum. Wasserman points to Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District, anchored around Madison and its suburbs, as another district with a map that has remained fairly similar in its geographic contours.In 1996, Rep. Scott Klug won his fourth term in that area, by a blowout margin of more than 16 points. It was a Democratic-leaning area, but slightly to the center of the spectrum, so Klug’s moderate brand fit the district.
The 14 rounds of failed ballots for Rep. Kevin McCarthy in the House speaker election illustrated this, as 20 far-right Republicans with no reason to fear Democratic challengers refused to back him until winning concessions on conservative policy matters.
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