Analysis: Counties that hosted a 2016 Trump rally saw a 226 percent increase in hate crimes
President Trump hugs an American flag at the Conservative Political Action Conference annual meeting at National Harbor near Washington, D.C., on March 2. By Ayal Feinberg , Regina Branton and Valerie Martinez-Ebers March 22 During an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” this past Sunday, Sen. Tim Kaine lambasted President Trump for emboldening white nationalism after a young man killed at least 50 people at two New Zealand mosques.
— Donald J. Trump March 18, 2019 Our research finds that Kaine could be correct, however: Trump’s rhetoric may encourage hate crimes, as we explain below. We examined this question, given that so many politicians and pundits accuse Trump of emboldening white nationalists. White nationalist leaders seem to agree, as leaders including Richard Spencer and David Duke have publicly supported Trump’s candidacy and presidency, even if they still criticize him for not going far enough. The New Zealand shooter even referred to Trump as a “renewed symbol of white identity.
To test this, we aggregated hate-crime incident data and Trump rally data to the county level and then used statistical tools to estimate a rally’s impact. We included controls for factors such as the county’s crime rates, its number of active hate groups, its minority populations, its percentage with college educations, its location in the country and the month when the rallies occurred.
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