For Star subscribers: 'The simplest explanation is that while Phoenix is hotter, Tucson’s temperatures have been more unusual' under 'monster' heat dome, Climate Central researcher says.
Tony Davis The forces of human-caused climate change triggered temperature spikes in both Tucson and Phoenix on well over half the days since our prolonged, record-setting heat wave began in late June, a science group's analysis found.
In that period, Tucson experienced 10 days in which temperatures topped 110 degrees, while Phoenix had 21 straight days of 110-degree-plus weather — record-setting sprees for both cities. The key to why Tucson had more days with high rankings on the climate index"is that we’re talking about how unusual a temperature is for that location and how much we can link to climate change ," said Andrew Pershing, Climate Central's vice president for science.
Also, the most intense area of temperature anomalies in this region has been centered a bit to Tucson's south and east, in Southwest New Mexico, around the Mexican border, Climate Central's Pershing added. Overall, Tucson has tended to be closer to the center of the"heat dome" that's been linked to this heat wave than Phoenix has, Pershing said.
"It's the typical progression of our monsoon ridge. It starts in Mexico in May and June and typically builds north over Tucson in June," said Crimmins, a professor and extension specialist for the University of Arizona's Department of Environmental Science. Climate Central started noticing the heat dome impact in its weather data starting"basically in the middle of June, when we started to see heat in Mexico start to peak," Pershing said."Then, there was a three-day break. Then, a new pulse came in, even more intense and bigger," he said.
"Think of it as a world without global warming. The last time that happened was around 1900. But we're not literally saying what the frequency would have been in 1900. We're literally trying to say what would happen today without global warming."A zero means that day's temperature had a weak or no link to climate change, Pershing said. A 1 score means that day's temperature is one and one-half times more likely to occur due to climate change.
Big nighttime differenceThat nighttime temperatures detected in the two cities during this heat wave were higher compared to normal nighttime temperatures than high temperatures were, compared to normal high temperatures, would come as no surprise to most knowledgeable climate-watchers. Still, another factor is that the weather signal is quieter at night than during the day, making it easier to pick up the signal of climate change impacts, he said.
'Highly credible, science-based'Kathy Jacobs is a University of Arizona professor of environmental science and director of UA's Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions. While not a climate scientist herself, during the Obama administration she was director of the National Climate Assessment, which analyzed climate change trends across the U.S.
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