Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27% chance of experiencing a ...
- Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27% chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96% chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher.
But the same predictive power does not extend to forecasting when and where earthquakes will strike in the first place, experts acknowledge. On average, a quake is followed by an even stronger tremor only about 5% of the time, though it happens more frequently in areas with significant geothermal activity, like the Mojave, according to Michael.The models rely on basic laws governing earthquake behavior that have been known for the better part of a century, experts said.
The current model used by USGS predicts the number and size of aftershocks based on the largest earthquake, or mainshock. But seismologists believe aftershocks behave more like the spread of a disease in an epidemic, Michael said. Just as each sick patient can infect others, so too can each aftershock in turn create its own subsequent aftershocks.
That forecast is crucial for establishing safety standards in building codes, for instance. But it will not help warn a city’s residents that a quake is imminent.
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