Democrats shouldn't freak out about a third party spoiler in the 2024 election cycle, writes Joshua Spivak
political organization, has locked up ballot spots in a number of states in 2024, and names such as Maryland Governor Larry Hogan have been attached as potential candidates., we shouldn’t be fooled by this shooting star. Voters certainly aren’t. It’s not just that a third party, especially one with no history of success and no national figure, has almost no hope of actually winning a race. Even the spoiler potential is overhyped, at least for 2024.
In four of the seven races where the parties got less than 98 percent, third party runs are seen as having played an important, or potentially decisive role, as spoilers. Ralph Nader’s 2000 Green Party run likely cost Al Gore Florida’s electoral votes and the presidency itself. Ross Perot’s 1992 campaign, which took 19 percent of the vote, may have proved a fatal blow to George H.W. Bush’s reelection chances.
But what may be much more important for 2024 is how the voters reacted to the shock of a strong third party or independent run. They did not rally around the idea and build momentum for a third party movement in future elections. Instead they recoiled and saw that what may have been a protest vote instead helped elect the candidate that they truly disliked.
Past third party over performances saw the same results for at least two elections. 1980, when John Anderson got 6.6 percent of the vote and Reagan and Carter combined for a mere 91.4 percent, was followed by the two parties winning 99.4 and 99.1 percent respectively. 1968, where Nixon and Humphrey only got 86.1 percent, was followed by two elections with the major parties combining for over 98 percent of the vote.
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