Those from 16 states voted against the will of a majority of their constituents
trained a statistical model of abortion attitudes among more than 18,000 respondents to surveys conducted with YouGov, an online pollster, over the past year. YouGov offered participants the chance to pick between four responses: abortion should always be legal; abortion should be legal with some restrictions ; a ban on all procedures except when the mother’s life is threatened; or a full ban, without exceptions.
A statistical technique known as multilevel regression and post-stratification was then used to assess the relationship between respondents’ attitudes to abortion and their demography and geography, estimating the share of the population in each state that favoured each of the four potential abortion policies. This suggested that adults in 38 states and the District of Columbia supported either unrestricted access to abortion or bans only on late-term procedures.
Taken together, this means that 27 senators from 16 states voted against the will of a majority of their constituents. The polling suggests this divergence is starkest in Wisconsin. Ron Johnson, the Republican senator from there who faces re-election in mid-term elections in November, voted against the legislation on May 11th. Yet 60% of adults in Wisconsin approve of abortion in all or most cases, our modelling shows. Mr Johnson thinks the mismatch is unlikely to matter.
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