The record-breaking boom has proved disappointingly weak
“I DON’T THINK that expansions just die of old age,” Janet Yellen, a former chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, told economists at a conference in Atlanta on January 4th. That theory may soon be put to the test. As of today, the economic expansion that began in America in June 2009 has continued, uninterrupted, for more than 120 months , making it the longest in history.
The business cycle has been getting longer for some time. Between 1945 and 1981, American economic expansions lasted for three years and eight months, on average. Since then they have stretched on for more than eight years. But as they have grown lengthier, they have become weaker, too. During the ten business cycles recorded between 1949 and 2007, the economy grew by an annual rate of 4.7% a year, on average. Since 2009, though, growth has averaged just 2.3%.
Of course, recessions are hard to predict; that is what makes them so disruptive. “As Janet says, expansions don’t die of old age,” Ben Bernanke told conference-goers in January, agreeing with his successor at the Fed. “I like to say they get murdered instead.”
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