An international team has designed a computer program that predicts with up to 80% accuracy which COVID-19 patients will develop serious respiratory disease.
The aim is to help doctors make the best use of limited resources, by identifying early on which patients will likely need hospital beds and which can be sent home for self-care. In theory, it could also help direct administration of aggressive treatment even in the initial absence of severe symptoms.
To their surprise, researchers found that the factors most clinicians would likely focus on -- such as lung status, age and gender -- were not helpful in predicting outcomes.The most accurate predictors were slight elevations in a liver enzyme called alanine aminotransferase ; deep muscle aches; and higher levels of hemoglobin, the protein that facilitates blood transport of oxygen throughout the body.
The tool could prove"very useful," said Dr. Maria Luisa Alcaide, a fellow with the Infectious Diseases Society of America who reviewed the findings.
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