A logical step for Ukraine would be to press south through the Zaporizhzhia region and sever the 'land bridge' between Russia and Crimea.
But for all the logical speculation, the roads and military positions near the front line show little evidence of a buildup of troops, and there are no indications that the Ukrainians are looking to mount an offensive in Zaporizhzhia region anytime soon, Muzyka and other analysts said.
It was the coldest day yet for the Ukrainian soldiers stationed here, and the first day Dadak noticed the ground begin to harden, he said. But the dirt was still slick enough for military vehicles to slide and get stuck. Dadak said he hoped that in the next couple of weeks their vehicles would gain more traction.
But the immediate challenges are fierce. The ground is even muddier than in the Kherson region, Dadak said. And, after abandoning Kherson city, Russia redistributed its troops to the east, boosting its presence in Zaporizhzhia. Shelling has intensified ever since, Dadak and his soldiers said. The Russian military has been preparing for a Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia since summer, Kofman said. The Ukrainians, however, carried out offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, west of the Dnieper River.
The Ukrainian towns closest to the front line appear nearly abandoned for most of the day, with residentsin the morning, when Russian shelling briefly pauses. In the town of Huliaipole, famous for being the birthplace of Ukrainian anarchist revolutionary Nestor Makhno, a missile strike on city hall about a month and a half ago killed the town’s deputy mayor and one of his aides. Another recent strike destroyed a large public library, leaving a mountain of rubble.
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