African swine fever, which has already ravaged pig herds in China and pushed up food prices there, could also drive up inflation in the other emerging markets, according to research firm Capital Economics.
, Poland and Romania, saying that pork is a relatively large part of the consumer price index basket in those countries — at around 2%. That compares with less than 1% in most other emerging markets, and about 3.5% in China, Swanston wrote.food prices in the country spiked 7.7% in May compared to a year ago, as pork prices surged 18.2%The rise in inflation in China "probably has further to run," while consumer prices in the other emerging markets would also be pushed up — by around 0.
Recent spikes in prices have caused pork inflation in emerging economies to rise by as high as 15%, Swanston wrote.The decline in pig populations would affect demand for soybeans, a type of oilseeds used as feed for the hogs, according to Capital Economics. Perhaps the "bigger risk" for emerging markets is that soybean exporters could see "a permanent reduction" in demand for the oilseeds as China shifts away from pork consumption, Swanston cautioned in the note.the declining supply could drive consumers to other meatsAccording to a March report from Capital Economics, China's consumption of poultry and beef has doubled since 1970, and is set to grow further.
"Looking ahead, China should start to increase its poultry consumption ... Chicken feed requires less protein, so if China is eating more poultry, demand for soybeans and corn could wane," Capital Economics said in March. In a double whammy, the trade war between U.S. and China has already led to falling soybean imports from the Asian giant.
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