Studies show global warming is drying up the Colorado River. Its largest reservoirs have dropped dramatically since 2000.
PHOENIX – Scientists have documented how climate change is sapping the Colorado River, and new research shows the river is so sensitive to warming that it could lose about one-fourth of its flow by 2050 as temperatures continue to climb.
“Either of the scenarios leads to a substantial decrease in flow,” said Chris Milly, a senior research scientist with USGS. “And the scenario with higher greenhouse-gas concentrations decreases the flow more than the scenario with lower greenhouse gas concentrations.” They estimated that more than half of this lost flow was attributable to higher temperatures. That equates to a loss of roughly 1.5 million acre-feet of water per year, which is more than half of the annual water allotment for the entire state of Arizona.
Milly and Dunne focused on the role of snow cover as a “protective shield” for water in the river basin. As the world gets hotter with the burning of fossil fuels, more of the precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. And the snow melts away earlier in the year. As the snow cover in the mountains is progressively lost, the river basin absorbs more energy.
The researchers’ latest estimate of temperature-driven flow losses is at the upper end of what Udall and fellow climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck suggested in a 2017 study, when they estimated declines of 3% to 10% for every degree of warming. Difficult talks ahead on long-term plansThe river’s largest reservoirs have dropped dramatically since 2000. Two decades of mostly dry years and overuse have taken a toll, and rising temperatures have added to the strains.Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have begun taking less water from the river this year under a set of agreements aimed at reducing the risk of the reservoirs falling to critically low levels.
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